It has been quite a while since I’ve commented about anything going on over at Sigma Frame. Let’s waste no time. Here is the lede:
Cathodoxy is growing, while Evangelical Protestantism is failing abysmally.
If you are an American Evangelical Protestant, having just attended your flourishing church this past Sunday, you might be surprised by this claim. And you should be surprised, because it largely isn’t true.
American Christianity
Let’s look at the recent Gallup report on church attendance in America:
| Group | 2000–2003 (%) | 2011–2013 (%) | 2021–2023 (%) | Change (pct. pts.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. adults | 42 | 38 | 30 | −12 |
| Mormon/Latter-day Saints | 68 | 75 | 67 | −1 |
| Protestant/Christian | 48 | 49 | 44 | −4 |
| Islam/Muslim | 34 | 46 | 38 | +4 |
| Catholic | 45 | 40 | 33 | −12 |
| Judaism/Jewish | 15 | 19 | 22 | +7 |
| Orthodox | 35 | 25 | 26 | −9 |
| Buddhism/Buddhist | 16 | 11 | 14 | −2 |
| Hinduism/Hindu | 21 | 17 | 13 | −8 |
| None/Atheist/Agnostic | 6 | 5 | 3 | −3 |
| Other | 45 | 40 | 21 | −24 |
According to Gallup, the secular decline in church attendance is actually being led by Cathodoxy, with Catholic and Orthodox attendance falling by the greatest amounts among those who identify with a particular faith or denomination.
As for Protestants, there is a small decline, but the figure in the table isn’t telling the whole story. According to Pew, the decline in “Protestant/Christian” is being driven by falling attendance in the Mainstream (non-evangelical) denominations:
Declines among Catholic and Mainline Protestant denominations account for most of the total decline in religious identification within Christianity in America. On a per-capita basis, the declines are even more notable. Mainstream denominations like the Episcopal Church, the Presbyterian Church (USA), the United Methodist Church, and the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America (ELCA) are among the biggest losers, having lost millions.
In fact, evangelical-style “nondenominational” and “nonspecific” churches have actually seen an increase over time. These are the only Christian denominational categories to see an increase.
The clear trend in American Evangelical Christianity is not an abandonment of evangelical theology. Rather, it is an abandonment of institutionalized Christianity. The institution of the “church” as an organization, establishment, or business entity has failed in many different ways. The evangelical church is growing where this institutionalization is being replaced by a new focus on the church qua church.
This isn’t to say that the evangelical churches are healthy. They are still in decline on average (and with respect to the growing population). But their decline is not as steep as that seen within Cathodoxy and Mainstream Protestantism.
Eastern Orthodox
But there is something about the Eastern Orthodox that is bucking the trends. Let’s look again at the Gallup Report:
| Group | 2000–2003 (%) | 2011–2013 (%) | 2021–2023 (%) | Change (pct. pts.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. adults | 42 | 38 | 30 | −12 |
| Mormon/Latter-day Saints | 68 | 75 | 67 | −1 |
| Protestant/Christian | 48 | 49 | 44 | −4 |
| Islam/Muslim | 34 | 46 | 38 | +4 |
| Catholic | 45 | 40 | 33 | −12 |
| Judaism/Jewish | 15 | 19 | 22 | +7 |
| Orthodox | 35 | 25 | 26 | −9 |
| Buddhism/Buddhist | 16 | 11 | 14 | −2 |
| Hinduism/Hindu | 21 | 17 | 13 | −8 |
| None/Atheist/Agnostic | 6 | 5 | 3 | −3 |
| Other | 45 | 40 | 21 | −24 |
The most significant fall in church attendance occurred between 2019 and 2021, during the lockdowns. Before that point, some denominations and religions were actually growing. But in 2020, every major denomination was asked by the government to close its doors and every major denomination acquiesced. This resulted in a one-time massive drop in attendance across the board, by as much as 50% in some cases. In general, this drop has only partially recovered in the subsequent years. Denominations agreed with the government that their role as the Body of Christ was not essential, and a great many people agreed with them and left for good.
The only Christian denomination to seemingly buck this trend was the Orthodox:
The new study finds that Orthodox churches overall were reluctant to embrace virtual worship compared to all religious congregations. By spring 2023, 75% of all U.S. congregations provided remote options compared to only 53% of Orthodox churches.
Fewer online options likely contributed to the significant drop in Orthodox church participation in the middle of the pandemic in 2021, but compared to other U.S. congregations that are on average 8% below pre-COVID-19 attendance, Orthodox churches had recovered in-person attendance on average by spring 2023.
In case the headline didn’t give it away, the article goes on to say that not all is well:
he said. While expressing gratitude for the men who have found his parish, he added,
“Ugh! Young men in the Orthodox church! Best not feed the crazy!”
The New York Post article spins this trend in a more positive light. Given the ideological divides found in every denomination, it wouldn’t shock me to see a schism within the Orthodox over the next couple of decades between the old guard of the Orthodox and the new masculinity-focused crowd.
Of course the small uptick in Orthodox church membership has done little to reverse the overall secular trend even within the Orthodox churches. Within Christianity, the small in-flows are wholly insufficient to counteract the large out-flows. It’s unclear if and when these trends will reverse.
It is also not clear at all to this writer that the increased church attendance in the Orthodox churches over the past few years is of greater magnitude than the general growth and uptick in attendance in non-denominational evangelical churches. It seems that both have been parallel recipients of Christians seeking new church homes as Mainstream Protestant and Catholic churches continue their long-term decline.
The Map
According to U.S. Religion Census:
California (10.9%)
New York (10.7%)
Illinois (7.6%)
Florida (6.4%)
New Jersey (6.2%)
Pennsylvania (6.1%)
In comparison, we note that only 34.8% of the total U.S. population lives in these six states.
When one factors in The Map™…
…we discover that a lot of this data on religious observance is statistically confounded. After all, most of the decline in American Protestantism is due to the Southern Baptists Convention (SBC), which is highly confounded by its locale:
If, for example, you were a member of the Lutheran Missouri Synod, you’d have a very different perspective.
The popularity of Eastern Orthodox Church over Evangelical Protestants as a whole has another causal explanation.
When one excludes the SBC (i.e. corrects for differences in intelligence), Evangelical Protestantism in America is not doing so bad compared even to the Orthodox (which has a massive demographic advantage). Their success is just a lot quieter because it doesn’t ruffle any feathers.
Oh, and once again, Florida doesn’t behave like the rest of the country.
All of this stats and “facts” are a load of tripe concerning most churches.
My cousin was married to a “devout” and cultural “Orthodox” church member. He cheated on her repeatedly…..lectured me about how “orthodoxy” was the “true” faith and expectations of Jesus and the early church
*Where in the NT does it say to “pray / recite liturgical prayers and bow to painted Icons” and have “said Icons” covered by curtains and opened at certain times? Hint. It doesnt
*There are over 200 women “saints” in the Orthodox church. So much for that “red pill” thing in that church
*The early church met in private homes. Met in public places. Met “down by the river”. In fact, TODAY…..right NOW China probably has the largest population of Christians in the entire world. Most practice in the home. More people speak in English in China than the population of the USA too!
*There was a big “ta doo” in Texas a few years back with Red Pill Christians screaming about “pastors supporting abortion” on some sort of petition and how these “cucked men” are not Christian. They never noticed or minded to note……..about ten Orthodox priests in Texas had signed this as well (we wouldnt want to give Orthodoxy a bad light….its the only *real* Christian faith out there)
*I have been in TWO Orthodox weddings. Long, full of CULTURAL trapping not related to anything in the Bible. The bride and groom “dance around crowns” at some point in the ceremony and those crowns are WAITING for them in heaven. So if they get divorced???? Someone isnt getting a crown? Someone isnt going to heaven?
*This saint, that saint, this feast, that feast, all trappings invented by MEN. Not God. Not professed by Jesus and He himself said nothing about: Bishops, Deacons, Ushers, Elders, priestly vestments, square footage of churches. As I recall the “curtain” between God and man was ripped apart / torn at his crucifixion. We no longer needed pure ritual
*Marching around the church on Easter weekend. Knocking at the door, there is no answer because “Jesus isnt there” and this is done in the Russian Orthodox tradition. Seen it done in Santa ROsa, Fresno, and San Jose. Dont tell me they “dont do this”
Right now, its the church that is evidently “hip” to go to if you are a “Real Man” otherwise you had better put on a dress.
I think traditions and trappings are important, but its hardly the reason to find Christ through the culture of man and his designs.
I know there a many wonderful, God fearing, devout and Holy Orthodox members. I have met a few.
But lets not make it into something it ISNT
And besides, people who do come to these churches…within a few years, they will turn it into the mess they made of the mainline Protestant denoms. I have been hearing about “revival” ever since I “accepted Jesus” and the answer is: We dont and wont have a revival. The bride is filthy.
Also, if indeed we DID get a revival? What we would do with it? Seeing the Red Pill / Real Man Christians in my walk….very little would be done except to blame women more and justify their own arrogance and sin
And to add.
I am not defending my “cultural” faith of Anglicanism, nor all the trappings and practices in The Salvation Army. Both of these traditions were products of their times.
The Salvation Army rose out of Victorian London, and the cultural norms of uniform, brass bands and the like. It “fit” that era. It was considered new, and revolutionary back then.
Back further to Methodism, on the heels during the English Enlightenment in the 1750’s. A “methodical” study of The Bible. The aspects of “saint or sinner” all must learn to read The Word. Methodists became famous in the USA for founding many colleges and universities for men and women. My former undergrad was one of them. Along with Syracuse University, Boston College, Southern Methodist, and many others. It “the times” it came up in. Mind you, Wesley never wanted to “separate” from the Church of England. He wanted Methodism to be a debating society of sorts within the framework. The American Revolution changed that of course……and in the last twenty years of his life. Wesley preached only twice INSIDE an actual church.
In my cultural tradition from my mothers side was the COE (church of england) and I will admit, during a High Service I attended at Manchester Cathedral while on vacation there in 2022. I did “feel” the sense of “culture” and it was indeed powerful. I could almost “see” the centuries past where my family performed, partook and practiced these same things as I was doing in 2022. Processing of the Cross, how all men bowed, women politely curtseyed and the cross passed. Making the sign of the Cross as well….and then the sword representing the Monarch. I get it. There is “something” to this…whatever tradition you follow. There is something keenly “cultural” to this. I think today we let let it at times “get in the way” of Jesus, The Holy Ghost and He “within” us, not on a cross, in a church, represented in paintings, stained glass or sculpture….
My cousin was married to a “devout” and cultural “Orthodox” church member. He cheated on her repeatedly…..lectured me about how “orthodoxy” was the “true” faith and expectations of Jesus and the early church
The example, in the OP, of Rev. Luke Veronis of Sts. Constantine and Helen Greek Orthodox Church in Webster, Massachusetts really highlights this. He sees a flood of young men into his church and sees how Red Pilled they are, but he considers this to be harmful extremism which he will try to temper.
Men may be flooding into certain churches, but that is no guarantee that they will experience a “based” church experience.
It’s funny you say that. The NY Post article has a bold title…
“Young men leaving traditional churches for ‘masculine’ Orthodox Christianity in droves.”
…you are led to believe that the Orthodox churches are ultra traditional and masculine. But if you click the link there, you see this image featured in the article:
Oh, and no head covering on the lady up front, and no head coverings here either (those are pretty bows):
I guess that is optional. I wonder what the Orthodox position is on single moms.
Is that pink and purple hair?
Lastmod,
It’s definitely about feelings. I run across Cathodoxy folk who all say stuff like this:
I had very little idea of what exactly was being said during Divine Liturgy at St. Anthony’s monastery.
However, it had more impact on me than every sermon I ever listened to combined as a Protestant.
It is run-of-the-mill Eastern Mysticism: rejecting your mind and embracing feelings and emotional manipulation. It reminds me of Radix Fidem. Everything is just presumed to be “spiritual.”
The irony is that it serves exactly the same purpose as the praise and worship band. The only difference is the aesthetic preferences.
And then there are interactions like this:
Become Orthodox.
Yes.
These are not appeals to reason. These kinds of appeals to Orthodoxy only work on men who are driven by their feelings and emotions. But appeals to aesthetics are just as fickle as appeals to whatever is currently fashionable. This is such a distinctly feminine approach, which is so ironic for a church that is supposedly masculine.
Peace,
DR
Agreed. There is something in the human psyche that makes this “approachable” or is it conformity to something passed down?
I remember at IBM I was in the (User Centered Design) UCD design dept for Storage Systems . We would measure in testing how many times the hand moved to the mouse. We would monitor eye movement up on the glass (computer VDT). I remember offhand learning that the “golden” color of food (deep fried kind of stuff) has a deep resonance to the eye and brain. Its just naturally appealing. Science cannot explain it.
Probably in the way cultural things develop or “just are” and people find appealing or attractive in a decorative way.
Now, this doesnt mean “golden brown” fried food….appealing as it is…..is good for you.
I mean, the Nazis had very attractive, handsome uniforms (Hugo Boss…no apologies for their past involvement in this movement mind you) but that didnt mean it represented a very questionable ideology and its muderous impact on the 20th century was anything to be proud of.
Interesting, especially about Florida, since this is my home. My actually home, not a transient pit stop. As such, I see FL a lot differently than most folks do.
To the topic at hand, I have read about the uptick in Cathodoxy among young men over the past few years. It’s also true that young men (and to a lesser degree young women) are all skewing more conservative. Women generally follow strong men, so if the trend of young men flowing into the churches -and as a result grow stronger- continues, young women will also flow into the churches. Like you, I think the numbers are more exaggerated than the publicity would imply.
Our church has seen an uptick since 2021, which is when we arrived there. Earlier I estimated us at 150, but when we got there, it was more like 80 members. That’s not counting the large numbers of young children with more being born every year. The increase has been fueled across all demographics, but there are a lot of young families led by men (often very young husbands) looking for solid, biblical leadership and teaching that supports the Scriptural model for marriage and family, where the gospel rather than political and cultural ideologies drive the conversation. Because, in a healthy church, the culture and ideological FOLLOWS Biblical preaching, not vice versa.
Internet Christians want the preaching to be inspired by reaction to the culture, which is actually quite dangerous. There is nothing happening that Scripture doesn’t address. There is nothing new under the sun. Not even feminism.
For example right now, our teaching elder is moving us expositionally through Romans. Romans 1 touches on natural law, masculinity, femininity, and homosexuality. Romans 2, God’s judgement against hypocrisy and vainglory (key characteristics of the current age). Romans 3, universality of the human need for redemption, etc. We’ve only made it through chapter 9 so far, but you get the picture. There’s no need to design topical messages to address the current age.
Just an anecdotal example, but those who want the truth will find the truth. Once again, spotlighting the demise of seeker sensitive, well-known churches which attempt to win converts through worldly methods does a disservice to those churches represented by Christ’s declaration that the gates of Hell will not prevail against his Church.
There are a number of factors behind the church attendance changes. As you note, young men and women are getting more conservative and conservative churches are the only ones that are growing .
There is still a residual effect from the lockdowns. So many people left their churches and many of the gains are just reassignments from one denomination to another. It’s not necessarily that devotion is on the rise (Christianity as a whole is still in decline), but it is quite possible that it is being shuffled around.
The inflows are encouraging, but like when some politician gets elected with lots of great promises, I’m not getting my hopes up.
Just prior to 2020, the non-denominational church I attended was experiencing the kind of influx in attendees that you describe. Each year the church grew by 15-30%, massive figures. They were ready to expand the church building and property. But popularity didn’t stop the pastor from embracing the occult under the veil of the “disciplines.”
For example, over at SF, RPA posted these statistics on the PCA which show a 4% total growth in membership since 2020. That’s quite good, but it’s not mind blowing.
At the PCA, the number of family units has only increased a tiny 0.2% while membership has increased by 4%. If incels are flooding into churches where there are no women, how long will they stick around once they realize that they are not going to find brides there? We already see in the Manosphere tales of (now) middle-aged men who tried to find a wife at church but failed.
I suspect the growth is in 2 areas: hyper liberal churches (David French) and CREC / Fed Vision members who finally took control of their local churches.
Whatever you may say, the PCA isn’t experiencing growth in the number of families. Lots of young men (and financial giving to the church!), but not young women and not marriages. This is more likely to lead to the next iteration: a New Wave Red Pill Movement.
There is a demand by young men for good churches and brides, but it isn’t clear that they are actually getting them.
The inflows are encouraging, but like when some politician gets elected with lots of great promises, I’m not getting my hopes up.
I agree. A lot of what we are seeing is clearly a result of the Covid shuffle. For a lot of folks covid was the straw that broke the backs of already strained camels. Like us, they finally looked for churches with stronger theology and a healthier culture.
I suspect you’re right about another wave of discontent fueling red pill 3.0. Or is it 4.0? From what I can tell, young men and young women writ large -although there are always exceptions- are simply drawn to different types of churches. A church culture that puts demands on its women (service, sacrifice, submission) is a steep learning curve, even for me. All this, and you never even hear a female voice throughout the whole of Sunday worship except for providing the melody to help lead the congregation singing hymns! 😉
Also, a culture that only makes room for feminine expression and perspective as acceptable or even ideal is not one where marriage can flourish. Without a strong and resolute group of elders, it is hard to keep these kinds of cultural characteristics from taking root in the church. After all, we’re all out here rubbing elbows with the world all week long.